The future of climate action—commitment or collapse?
On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump’s first day back in office, one of his many executive orders was titled ‘Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements,’ wherein he removed the United States of America from the Paris Agreement—just as he did at the end of his first presidency, although the US rejoined mere months later, when Joe Biden took office.
The Paris Agreement is an international treaty on climate change which set out to limit carbon emissions in order to reduce the global rise in temperatures as a result of climate change. A total of 195 countries signed onto the Paris Agreement, including Canada and the United States. One factor that convinced many countries to join the Paris Agreement was its flexibility: countries are permitted to set their own non-binding carbon emission goals, which are reviewed every five years to ensure countries are on track with the treaty’s overall goal. This means no hard punishments for not meeting their own goals. This makes it puzzling why Trump would leave the treaty, as there are essentially no negative consequences to being a part of it.
The Paris Agreement was preceded by the Kyoto Protocol, another international climate change treaty, which allegedly failed. Many countries did not abide by the treaty due to either receiving a developing country designation, despite being a heavy greenhouse gas emitter, or by not ratifying it at all. The protocol also had significant economic penalties for not meeting targets, causing some countries, like Canada, to leave as a result. By leaving the Paris Agreement, Trump may have opened the door for the agreement to follow the same fate as the Kyoto Protocol.
Doug Ford’s recent re-election also raises questions regarding the future of climate policy in Ontario and Canada more broadly. The controversial carbon tax, which Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre vehemently opposes, is one of the ways in which Canada has been attempting to reach its carbon emissions goals—by implementing a price on how much carbon you emit. Poilievre has not made mention of any climate policies other than ‘axing the tax.’
If everybody lived like the average Canadian, we would need five Earth-like planets in order to handle the carbon emissions and resource needs of the population. Canada is the 12th largest carbon emitting country in the world, showing how unsustainable our current society is.
Despite these setbacks, are we on track with the Paris Agreement and limiting rising global temperature? The Paris Agreement aimed to limit the increase of global temperatures by 1.5-2.0 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Currently, it seems our efforts are not enough, with record hot summers every year and frequent climate disasters. Current policies will allow for 2.6 – 3.1 degrees Celsius of warming. The rise of politicians who pull away from climate action legislation and outright deny its existence will not help, from Trump to Poilievre.
One thing is for certain: temperatures will continue to rise and have catastrophic consequences, unless we take action, regardless of who is in power. While the Paris Agreement once signalled a step forward as a joint global action, it will only be effective if the global community chooses to follow through on its promises.
