Why Putin wants Ukraine
In the months since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, world leaders and international organizations have widely condemned it as a senseless loss of life. The effect on the Ukrainian population has been devastating, but it’s also part of a calculated long game by the Russian president to reassemble the former Soviet Union.
Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, was an officer in the KGB, the main intelligence and security branch of the Soviet government, and was present when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, an event that signaled the end of the Soviet Union. He hated the fact that Moscow was willing to let go of much of their territory without a fight, and that formative experience has shaped his foreign policy for decades.
He made this clear soon after his elevation to President of Russia, during his 2005 State of the Nation Address. “The demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” Putin said. “As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.”
What’s key here is Putin’s reference to who he deems fellow country-men beyond the Russian border. His stated belief that all ethnic Russians in the former Soviet Union belong in, or are part of Russia has been the driving force behind many militaristic actions in the recent past. For instance, Russia’s invasion of the territory of Crimea in 2014 was similarly motivated.
Historically, Crimea has had a majority ethnically Russian population, which has since grown even more, with Ukrainians fleeing the occupied territory. According to the country’s official statistics, 247,000 Russians have, simultaneously, moved into the territory. The number is likely much higher, but purposefully altering the demographic make-up of an occupied territory violates the Geneva Convention’s Article 49, either way.
Russia currently occupies at least part of four regions in south and eastern Ukraine, all with a significant ethnically Russian population. In these territories—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—a referendum was held at the end of September asking if the population wanted to become a part of Russia.
The referendum was held under coerced circumstances and the international community largely condemned it as fraudulent. Not only did Russian officials go door to door with armed military officers, in what was likely an intimidation tactic, but official reports from Moscow indicated levels of support as high as 99 percent in favour. Still, Putin has signaled his continued intention to use these fraudulent referendums as proof that his war is one of liberation, not terror.
Recently, Putin called for the partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine, which is significant in two ways. First, it shows just how far Putin is willing to go in pursuit of supposed Russian sovereignty. Men are already fleeing Russia by the thousands, and public protests have erupted. His popularity is rapidly declining, yet he remains strong in his convictions.
Second, it’s a clear indicator that Ukraine is winning. It’s a testament to democracy that one man’s bloody whims—or decades-long beliefs in expanding the Russian state, no matter the cost—are being fought every hour of every day.
Putin wants Ukraine. But Ukrainians are doing everything in their power to make sure he can’t have it.
