Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been drastic changes accompanying the need to limit person-to-person interaction. One of the most impactful changes for students was the transition of schooling to an online format. After a year of almost entirely online classes, in-person classes finally seem to be arriving in the fall.
Throughout the summer, UofT has continued to release guidelines regarding in-person classes. Notably, in an email on August 20, UofT announced that “all members of the University community—including students, staff, faculty, and librarians will be required to provide proof of full vaccination or register in the University’s rapid screening program.” Alongside this policy, the University will not be instating classroom capacity or social distancing restrictions. These new developments pose interesting questions regarding the safety and feasibility of in-person classes.
How will the rollout of vaccines across Ontario impact the upcoming school year?
There is a significant amount of nuance needed to fully estimate the effects of vaccination on the school year, but one can use broad vaccine statistics to approximate what it might be like. Many shifting factors, including international student vaccination rates, viral variants, and the overall fluid nature of this pandemic mean that no prediction can be set in stone.
At the time of writing, just over 82 percent of eligible people in Ontario have at least one dose of a two-dose COVID-19 vaccine, while 75 percent of eligible people are fully vaccinated. That said, this number is subject to variation at UofT, considering the younger demographics and diverse nationalities of those attending the University.
Herd immunity is a state where there are enough immune people in a population to stop the spread of the virus. Current estimates suggest that we need at least 70 percent of all people fully vaccinated—not just those eligible—in order to achieve herd immunity against COVID-19. At the time of writing, just over 65 percent of all Ontarians are fully vaccinated. Given this statistic, it can be estimated that there may not be full herd immunity within Ontario by the start of classes—but it may well be achieved within the UofT community.
High vaccination rates among UofT students are to be expected with the University’s new vaccination policy. This, combined with mandatory masking in UofT buildings, means that there will be significant protection from COVID-19. As Ontario vaccination rates continue to rise and risks of infection, severe disease, and transmission fall, students can likely expect a greater return to pre-pandemic normalcy.
How will COVID-19 variants affect the feasibility of in-person class?
One of the big questions surfacing as the pandemic continues is how the many COVID-19 variants—primarily the Delta variant—will impact current reopening. There is certainly the fear of a variant-driven fourth wave that may lead to yet another lockdown.
That being said, there has been little to no proof that our current vaccines are truly ineffective against the Delta variant, which now makes up the majority of COVID-19 cases in Ontario. A study done in July in The New England Journal of Medicine found that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine were 88 percent effective against the Delta variant and 93.7 percent effective against the Alpha (UK) variant. The Moderna vaccine was shown to be 72 percent effective against the Delta variant after just one dose.
Though these numbers are estimates, they do show that the most popular vaccines for young Ontarians provide excellent protection against the Delta variant. Most importantly, full vaccination greatly reduces the severity of Delta infection, and hospitalizations are incredibly rare. With Ontario’s current vaccination rates, it can be assumed that hospitalizations and deaths will continue to stay low going forward, and that any fourth wave in Ontario would be less severe than those previous. This means that as long as everything continues as is, variants do not pose a significant threat to in-person classes next school year.
How can everyone continue to stay safe indoors?
The pandemic has created significant apprehension towards returning to in-person classes, especially since crowds of people have largely been associated with super-spreading events. Transitioning from over a year of at-home schooling to large lecture halls will certainly be a big change for students, and safety will be a top priority for many. Considering the University’s aforementioned safety protocols, the upcoming academic year will be very safe.
That said, social distancing where possible and limiting the size of groups can further contribute to safety, even if these actions are not mandated. Of course, public health measures are constantly being updated as COVID-19 research continues and the situation changes locally, so it is always best to listen to doctors and other public health professionals for the most accurate advice.
Most importantly, one of the key aspects of staying safe during the return to in-person schooling is to prioritize personal mental health. UofT offers resources to help students cope with the transition back to in-person classes, and it can be incredibly beneficial to read over and take advantage of them. Do not be afraid to speak with friends, family, or mental health professionals about your feelings and experiences regarding the transition back to campus. There is support available for you, and no problem is too big or small for you to seek assistance.
Please see the following support options:
U of T Mental Health Resources Info Page: https://www.viceprovoststudents.utoronto.ca/covid-19/
CAMH Mental Health and COVID-19: https://www.camh.ca/en/health-info/mental-health-and-covid-19
Ontario Mental Health Resources: https://ontario.cmha.ca/provincial-mental-health-supports/
