How will the 4th wave shape the beginning of this semester?

After a year of virtual classes due to the COVID-19 pandemic, faculty and students were keen to return to campus this September, only to find the pandemic still looming.

In spite of efforts by the Province of Ontario and Toronto Public Health to ensure as many vaccines were administered as possible for the start of fall, the number of COVID-19 cases reported in Ontario has risen significantly since the province entered Stage 3 of a three-stage reopening plan released last spring. The average number of daily reported cases of COVID-19 remained above 700 during the first two weeks of September.

Modelling by the Ontario Science Advisory Board released at the start of the month shows a variety of possible scenarios for the upcoming months. Among these, a worst-case scenario stood out in which case numbers could reach over 9,000 by October and continue rising into the cold months. 

This “fourth wave” of the COVID-19 pandemic has largely been driven by “a critical mass of unvaccinated individuals in Ontario,” University of Toronto professor and top epidemiologist Dr. David Fisman told The Strand in an interview, saying “[we] are likely to see substantial strain on our health system in [the] future.” Dr. Fisman recently resigned from the Ontario Science Advisory Board, citing “political considerations [that] appear to be driving outputs from the [Science Advisory Board] tables” in his resignation letter.

To combat rising cases of COVID-19, the University of Toronto has enacted various policies to minimize on-campus transmission. These include requiring students to submit proof of vaccination and complete a COVID-19 symptom questionnaire on UCheck before coming to campus, mandating masks for public indoor areas, and ordering physical distancing and capacity limits during non-instructional activities. 

Access to UofT libraries have also been restricted, requiring students to complete a UCheck questionnaire and present a valid TCard before entry. Some libraries on campus, including the Milt Harris Library and the Engineering and Computer Science library, remain closed. Specific information about hours and operations can be found on the University of Toronto Libraries website.

Most clubs at the University this year are continuing to operate virtually for the time being, with official University guidelines advising against indoor in-person events. Additionally, clubs and student organizations cannot host events with food except for “prepared, individualized boxes” and are prohibited from engaging in activities “involving yelling, chanting or singing.”

Despite these policies to limit the spread of COVID-19, the University of Toronto has removed physical distance and capacity requirements for “indoor instruction spaces/activities,” a decision Dr. Fisman criticized as “foolish,” adding that he “suspects [the policy] will come back to bite us.”  

When asked about the University’s measures against COVID-19, Dr. Fisman said, “the push for a vaccinated student body was really helpful,” though he “would have liked to have seen the University make vaccination mandatory for students and not provide a testing loophole.” In addressing what changes to COVID-related policy students can expect to see from the University of Toronto in the upcoming months, Dr. Fisman said he thinks “the University will follow the province, which in turn will depend on epidemiology.”